South Africa: an investment A-Z

Following on from Jeremy Gardiner's A-Z of the Rand's decline in 2001 and his A-Z of the Rand's recovery in 2002/2003, he's back with his next instalment: an investment A-Z for South Africa.

p>AFRICA is rising from the ashes. Last year, five of the world's top ten stock markets, in US Dollars, were African. Since 2001, Africa's returns have averaged 106% vs. 47% for developed markets. In addition, Africa's trade with China has gone from US$900m in 1990 to US$18.5 billion in 2003. We need to position ourselves as the Hong Kong of Africa. South Africans have a competitive advantage in Africa, now use it!

BEE: An important phase to normalise our economy after our abnormal past. The goal of broad-based ownership is gradually becoming a reality and will lay the foundations for a stable economy and society going forward. Once achieved, we can hopefully move forward in a truly non-racial environment.

COMMODITIES AND CHINA: Insatiable Chinese demand for commodities should see a two-decade bonanza for resource rich nations, which will benefit both South Africa and Africa. However, we must not allow Rand strength as a result of this commodity demand to destroy all other industry. We must be responsible and build jobs.

DOLLAR: Twin deficits, abnormally low interest rates and an economy on its back, have put the US Dollar under pressure for a couple of years, but the combination of rising rates (from 1-4% over the past 18 months), a recovering economy and a lack of viable alternatives has seen the US Dollar regain some composure. Expect sideways movement against the Euro and a gradual strengthening against the Rand going forward.

EURO: The United States of Europe has not been pulling together like the power block it was intended to be. So while the French continue to say 'non' and the Dutch 'nee'; Germany has suffered 'electoral paralysis'; the Italians want the Lira back and the Portuguese are way outside the budget deficit limits. From Poland to Portugal and Sicily to Sweden, there is much unhappiness, so there is no surprise that the Euro has been weak. Expect the Euro to trade slightly stronger than both the US Dollar and the Rand going forward!

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: The tide has turned and despite capital controls, the foreigners are coming. Barclays/ABSA and Vodafone/Venfin - both a huge vote of confidence in the country and should signal the beginning of many more to come!

GOLD: A viable alternative to the US Dollar and the Euro, both of which look vulnerable. Ironically, the central banks that have been responsible for a lot of gold's weakness over the past five years as a result of reducing their gold reserves, are now talking of raising their depleted reserves! Finally broken its inverse relationship with the US Dollar; now we can look forward to a rising Rand gold price.

HIV AIDS: Somewhere between 4.5 million and 6.5 million people in South Africa are HIV positive. A humanitarian disaster absolutely! We need to get anti retrovirals to the people that need them and spread education as widely as possible. Economically, however, most listed companies and increasingly unlisted companies as well, have anti retroviral programmes, converting AIDS from a killer disease to a manageable disease and allowing workers to remain productive for years to come.

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES: Better than expected inflation data, a stronger Rand and a lower than expected oil price mean that inflation has peaked and therefore so have interest rates. Expect rates to be flat for 2006.

JSE: Continues hitting new highs on a weekly basis. Just rewards for the economic successes we have achieved. Expect a slowdown next year, but barring an unforseen disaster, we believe this market can continue to deliver inflation beating returns. However, the days of CPI + 45% are probably over for now. Adopt more realistic expectations going forward.

KEBBLE: Killed and by whom? A lot of unanswered questions and a lot of unpaid taxes. Clarity on both of the above is needed as soon as possible.

LABOUR: Still regulated to the point of inefficiency. Government have identified this as a problem and are talking of deregulating. The sooner the better. Any disincentive to hire has to be frowned upon. Loosen up the labour market and let's start meaningfully reducing the starving unemployed.

MANDELA, MBEKI, MBOWENI AND MANUEL: What a formidable combination! The men we have to thank for the economic and general prosperity South Africa is enjoying today. Don't take them for granted, we may well miss them when they are gone! Let's hope succession is being managed effectively.

NIKKEI: The Japanese stock market. Japan's GDP figures were upgraded this year from 0.8 to 1.5% by the IMF. Not that 1.5% is anything to shout about, South Africa will probably double if not triple that this year. The point is that it is finally an 'upgrade' as opposed to the relentless 'downgrades' which the Japanese have had to endure for so long. And why? Because they have recently found themselves in a good neighbourhood - i.e. their proximity to Asia, in particular China.

OIL: Every week we get a different reason for oil strength. One week the Nigerians are misbehaving, then it's the Russians, then the Iranians are resuming their nuclear activities, then it's hurricanes, more frequent and more ferocious than ever before, and next we'll be told that the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing a colder than expected winter. Suffice to say that there is a shortage of refining capacity globally (the process from which they take it out of the ground to when it gets into your tank) and until new capacity comes online, which will take another year or two, expect a tighter oil market with a trading range probably somewhere between US$40 to US$60 per barrel.

PROPERTY: The Economist magazine forecasts that the US housing market collapse will be the biggest financial collapse in history. They could be right and they could be wrong, and there are reasons why the South African market may be different, but we won't be unaffected. In life, whenever there's talk of a bubble, tread carefully.

QUEST FOR 6% GROWTH: An exciting prospect, which is not far out of reach and will significantly reduce unemployment, poverty and crime, all of which if left unchecked threaten to unravel all the progress made thus far in our new democracy.

RAND: Finally, along with the JSE, being traded according to valuation, rather than emotional fundamentals. Having recovered spectacularly after being ridiculously oversold, this year has finally seen it decline gradually against most other currencies, a trend we expect to continue.

SCEPTICISM: It took us ten years of our new democracy before both foreigners (and locals) bought in to the fact that it looks as though South Africa is sustainably going to be managed properly. And slowly but surely, that scepticism was replaced by optimism. That fundamental shift in attitude has seen the risk discount, which for so long has seen South African property and stock market valuations significantly lower than Western countries, finally reducing.

TERRORISM: The cancer of the world in which we live. Markets are increasingly tolerant and less responsive to terrorist attacks. Hopefully SA is sufficiently neutral to spare us this "dreaded disease".

US: The US consumer has for the past three years, by using his house as an ATM cash machine, been the locomotive of global earnings. If Joe Sixpack suddenly finds the value of his bond to be more than his house, he will get a fright and stop spending. We will not be unaffected.

VOLATILITY: For so long, South Africans have had to live with extremely volatile stock markets, currency markets, inflation and interest rates. Prudent macro economic management by government should see us entering a sustainably far more stable environment going forward.

WORLD CUP SOCCER 2010: Will give us the necessary momentum to take us through the teenage years of our new democracy. The world's attention will be focused on us and it should be a great advent for the country. We need to ensure that it happens perfectly.

XHANGE CONTROLS: The last remaining vestige of apartheid era paranoia which will hopefully be a thing of the past by next year. All indications are that the abolition thereof would lead to greater fixed investment inflows, and possibly even a firmer currency.

YOU: From a nation of pessimists, squirreling every possible cent offshore to a nation of optimists buying property and laying down roots here. Sure we have problems, lots of them, but together we can solve them, divided we will fail.

ZUMA: A sad set of circumstances indeed. Now the "race for the presidency" is wide open, expect some interesting developments before Mbeki's succession is announced in 2007.