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Current Market View

Unit Trust investing should generally be viewed on a medium to long term basis. Our market view seeks to reflect this, and is updated when we perceive that conditions warrant it. View previous market reports below.


22 Feb 2010 : It is currently incredibly difficult to have conviction about the likely short to medium direction of the stock market.

Chinese announcements to limit credit in its domestic market were not well received by global investors in January. Concerns around the withdrawal of stimulus and possible interest rate hikes in the US have resulted in many markets ending their technical uptrends, which make it incredibly difficult to have conviction about the likely short-to medium direction of the stock market.

Market Summary

In rand terms, the South African equity market (ALSI) shed 3.5% over January, compared with losses of 1.2% and 2.6% for the MSCI World and MSCI EM indices respectively. The ALSI posted a US$ total return of -6.4%, while developed and emerging markets returned -4.1% and -5.6% respectively.

Technology (6.5%) and Financials (1.2%) were the only industry groups to post positive total returns over the month. Telecoms, Basic Materials and Health Care were the worst-performing groups, posting total returns of -6.8%, -6.1% and -5.3% respectively.

Within the equity sectors, Software (6.5%), Banks (4.3%), Personal Goods (4.3%), Industrial Metals (3.9%), Food Producers (3.3%) and Food & Drug Retailers (3.3%) produced the highest total returns over the month. Fixed Line Telcos (-11.4%), Media (-9.6%), Industrial Transport (-9.2%), Gold Mining (-8.4%) and Construction & Materials (-7.7%) showed the worst performance for January.

Mondi Plc, Shoprite, Stanbank, Didata and KIO were the top performing shares within the ALSI Top 100 universe. Group 5, Grindrod, M&R, JD Group and Telkom were the worst performers over the month.

Commentary

After a very solid recovery which ran from March 2009 to December 2009, we saw weakness across all markets in January 2010. The chart below depicts the uptrends in the developed-and emerging market indices over the last few months as well as the downturn of the last month. Chinese announcements to limit credit in its domestic market were clearly not well received by global investors and were a major factor in this decline. Technical analysts now all point to the fact that quite a few global stock markets have broken their uptrends and face major resistance before a move higher is likely.

The major feature of 2009 was widespread policy stimulus, which provided the base for the strong increase in equity prices seen during the year. Looking forward, once economic expansion has achieved traction, the expected response would be for stimulus measures to be slowly phased out as global markets recover. This would pave the way for the US to raise interest rates in due course. Because there is currently an oversupply of labour, goods and services in this economy, inflation pressure is likely to be postponed for some time and one should not expect aggressive rate hikes.

Although the leading indicators around the globe are exhibiting strong uptrends, the UK and Eurozone economies are expected to grow at less than half of the 3% likely in the US for 2010. Given that US GDP growth is expected to outstrip the rest of the developed world, coupled with the prospect of slightly higher US interest rates (i.e. less benefit from the “carry-trade”), one could make a strong argument that the relative underperformance of the USD has come to an end – a trend which one can already observe from the graph below. It’s well known that a stronger dollar usually is bad news for commodity prices (i.e. you need fewer dollars to buy the same amount of commodities) and more often than not you’ll also see share prices of resources companies come under pressure.

To summarise the main issues currently on the market’s mind:

  • It is relatively clear that the world is emerging from recession, albeit slowly.
  • Given the depressed base that global growth is coming from one could expect to see some pleasant year-on-year economic growth rates, particularly in the US.
  • China is ticking along as if the recession never happened and their demand for commodities looks set to continue.
    BUT all this “good news” is, at least in the short-term, being offset by:
  • fears that China is tightening credit extension,
  • the US is starting to phase out stimulus measures and could also start hiking interest rates shortly,
  • a dollar that looks to be getting stronger, and
  • the urge to take profits after last year’s impressive rally

    • Despite the encouraging economic picture, these last issues are a recipe for some equity market weakness.

    Positioning

    The result of the above is that it is incredibly difficult to have conviction about the likely short-to medium direction of the stock market and therefore, we have made no changes to the Intervest portfolios over the last month. Over the course of the year we are going to try and reduce the TER (Total Expense Ratio) of the portfolios and any future switches will give effect to this.

    The Intervest Funds of Funds Team
    February 2010



    Previous Market Views
    Click on title to view.
    25 Jan 2010 The current favorable investment environment may well result in equity markets that overshoot fair value.
    14 Dec 2009 There are still potential credit threats which could pose a greater risk to the global recovery. The mountain of cash the sidelines has ensured that stock market corrections have been short lived thus far
    10 Nov 2009 Market corrections may be muted and markets could continue grinding higher. But it is clear that the easy money has been made and that there is ever-increasing risk in entering the markets at these levels.
    13 Oct 2009 Consensus view is that markets are overdue for a correction, therefore markets will grind higher – because markets always behave the opposite of consensus.
    10 Sep 2009 Numerous concerns remain. It is too early to differentiate sustainable demand from restocking demand
    12 Aug 2009 Given the rapidity with which markets have moved higher, it would not be surprising to have a fairly sharp correction – most likely when more of the money on the sidelines has been pulled into the market.
    08 Jul 2009 China's economic data continues to suggest that government stimulus is having a positive effect
    07 Jun 2009 We believe the downside and upside risks to equities are now quite symmetrical . The real lows have been seen, but a significant pullback from this current rally is quite possible.
    10 May 2009 Green shoots may be appearing, but there are dry patches ahead.
    03 Apr 2009 Given the coordinated global response to the global financial crisis and the fact that a lot of the economic data that is coming out is slightly less negative than expected we expect markets to continue higher for a short while longer.
    04 Mar 2009 Friday’s sell off in the US triggered by their weaker than expected GDP data has resulted in the Dow Jones now having fallen over 50% from its highs. This could mean that we should be getting closer to a sustainable bottom
    06 Feb 2009 At this point we are experiencing a small rally but there are many stumbling blocks in the weeks ahead including many of S&P companies reporting earnings and more importantly US economic data.
    05 Jan 2009 Although things are looking better for 2009 it is no time to let our guard down. Most local consumers have significant debt burdens and retailers and commercial banks will most likely be affected most by this.
    03 Dec 2008 Will there be a rally towards the end of the year in spite of the (official) US recession?
    04 Nov 2008 We are well positioned for a rally although we don't think we have seen the last of the bear market.
    02 Oct 2008 Barry Shamley believes that there is a reasonable chance of a bear market rally from current levels, but that it is prudent to limit equity exposure for the time being
    04 Sep 2008 Key investment events during August were the improvement in US market sentiment and the drop in the oil and other commodity prices.
    03 Aug 2008 Current rand strength has been attributed to SA's significant relative yield and speculation that local interest rates may have peaked, leading to the possibility of an economic recovery sooner than many offshore markets.
    04 Jul 2008 Although there is a reasonable chance of a bounce in equity markets we have not yet seen full scale capitulation yet with the US VIX index which measures volatility not yet at its highs earlier this year.
    03 Jun 2008 Bad debt due to non-payment of loans is expected to increase more than previously forecast. Some financial institutions and retailers could be facing losses as opposed to just declining earnings.
    12 May 2008 The rally is getting narrower and fund managers are having a harder time spotting the winners.
    04 Apr 2008 Economic outlook: The bottom line is that a slowdown in the US and Euro Zone effects everybody.
    04 Mar 2008 The fundamentals do not paint a pretty picture and although there is a possibility that emerging markets do pull the global economy through this difficult period we will err on the side of caution and will reinvest only on pullbacks.
    10 Feb 2008 We believe we are in the midst of a bear market squeeze/short cover rally. It is not possible to time this but we believe we are fairly close to the top. There is a reasonable chance of another downleg or sell off
    07 Jan 2008 2008: Political uncertainty in SA and the rest of Africa seems to be increasing, which may dampen appetite for the continent. Investment risks have increased significantly, volatility will remain high and equity markets will not be for the faint hearted.
    03 Dec 2007 Many markets have been quite close to key long term ‘Bull’ market support lines and we remain cautious in this regard.

    06 Nov 2007 Consensus amongst market commentators is that the housing recession is set to run longer and deeper than everyone expected and probably only bottom in late 2008.

    05 Oct 2007 Although equity markets have rebounded strongly the risk of a US recession still looms at the back of everyone minds but until it is confirmed by economic data investors are choosing to see the glass half full for the time being.

    08 Sep 2007 August 2007, a historic month. The JSE all share index was 15% down from its July 2007 high at mid-month and bounced back dramatically to end up 0.35%.
    03 Aug 2007 August Market View: Ongoing concerns in the credit markets, and corrections caused by a mass 'flight to safety'. We remain very defensive in the short term but still positive for equities on a long term view.
    03 Jul 2007 Although July is off to a better start markets are likely to continue to be range bound and we will exercise caution until we are comfortable we are out of the danger zone.
    04 Jun 2007 Mixed economic data interpreted positively for now
    07 May 2007 Invested for now, but concerns over the increasing risks in China remain.
    05 Apr 2007 Johannesburg Securites Exchange surprises many by reaching 27 267
    06 Mar 2007 Message to investors: Exercise caution in these volatile markets.
    06 Feb 2007 Markets rarely go up in a straight line, but the outlook based on fundamentals is encouraging

    03 Jan 2007 Will an election year in the US affect SA markets? Other key issues include US inflation and the oil price...
    06 Dec 2006 While we remain in our bull uptrend, many risks remain, which need to be carefully monitored.
    06 Nov 2006 Equities flavour of the month but profit taking spree and lower US growth will be monitored closely.
    04 Oct 2006 Increased offshore exposure and sector shift away from commodities
    06 Sep 2006 August was characterized with many potential threats all of which failed to materialize.
    01 Aug 2006 The vulnerable rand, reduced local consumption and consolidation of commodity prices leads us to a more cautious outlook
    03 Jul 2006 While Equinox is ambivalent about global equity markets, the combination of a weaker rand and firm commodity prices seems to suggest that some sectors of the JSE may continue to do reasonably well.
    08 Jun 2006 How serious is this correction? There is good technical evidence to suggest that the current correction could be deeper and longer than has been the case in the last three years.
    08 May 2006 Controlled capital account deficit and continued high commodity prices key to South African equity performance
    05 Apr 2006 The risk reward trade-off is becoming steadily less favourable.
    06 Mar 2006 Correction or consolidation?
    07 Feb 2006 Correction looming?
    19 Jan 2006 Decreasing confidence in the US dollar and a growing perception that real underlying inflation in the US is higher than claimed seem to be fuelling the price of gold.
    06 Dec 2005 Markets take a breather before moving higher
    04 Nov 2005 SA economy in a relatively strong position
    06 Oct 2005 September was another very strong month for South Africa and the majority of other world equity markets.
    05 Sep 2005 The global equity markets continue to display a quite remarkable capacity to ignore bad news and, in fact, seems to use bad news as an excuse to surge ahead with new vigor.
    05 Aug 2005 Ten good reasons why the JSE will continue to perform
    05 Jul 2005 What are the possible consequences of increasing oil prices, a manic property market and Jacob Zuma fallout? Read here to find out...
    03 Jun 2005 Risks receding but do not throw caution to the wind
    06 May 2005 Mixed signals in the current market
    05 Apr 2005 In the current complex and treacherous market it is possible that investors may panic, but there are still signs that our markets will strengthen.
    05 Mar 2005 Markets trending higher, but we remain concerned about medium term implications of slowdown in US and China
    04 Feb 2005 Cautious outlook in preparation for a weaker rand
    21 Jan 2005 Markets Increasingly Nervous
    18 Jan 2005 A Switch into Cash to Preserve Capital
    03 Dec 2004 In the short term the momentum seems set to continue for most global equity markets, SA included - but it is fragile and a change in sentiment could result in a sharp correction.
    05 Nov 2004 Current equity bull markets look set to persist – but for how long?
    06 Oct 2004 Another great month for the JSE and globally, and SA's positives are many. We will remain fully invested ... but watchful.
    03 Sep 2004 Industrial and financial shares seem set to move somewhat higher over the next several months. US could improve further to year-end. Take part in the rally - but with caution.
    04 Aug 2004 Continued expectations that global equity markets will have an extended period of large rallies followed by large declines...use of hedging strategies may well become more critical
    07 Jul 2004 Testing times these are...a good time to diversify out of rands, possible slight global rally ahead, select SA equities still offer value
    01 Jun 2004 We continue to recommend a defensive approach to the markets, although good values still present in SA industrial and financial shares.
    05 May 2004 Cautious on the outlook for world markets. We will remain in defensive portfolio positions.
    12 Mar 2004 Caution required - should the SA all share index break its current uptrend, we will recommend some changes to our portfolios to make them more defensive.
    06 Mar 2004 The world is enjoying strong economic growth and a general increase in asset prices - perhaps we should enjoy the party while it lasts..
    15 Jan 2004 We will remain with our current portfolio selections for now - but will be very watchful for adverse developments.
    01 Dec 2003 SA equity markets are likely to continue to offer reasonable investment opportunities in select shares but the overall market may well struggle to make headway.
    11 Nov 2003 Since our last market view there have been a number of global developments that impact on our investment view going forward.
    04 Sep 2003 Global bond yields affect intl equities. Bonds and property have peaked. SA equities favoured.
    11 Jul 2003 Increase allocation to SA equities exposed to the domestic economy
    21 May 2003 Remain cautious. Property unit trusts and South African shares which focus on the domestic economy remain the preferred investments.
    07 Apr 2003 A short war? Maybe.... but it looks like a useful market rally anyway.
    02 Apr 2003 SA equity markets continue to take their lead from offshore markets
    17 Feb 2003 Remain cautious for now. Possible 'relief rally' ahead.
    13 Dec 2002 Rand will remain strong. Property and Retail sectors look very good. Gold has possibilities. Global equities uncertain.
    01 Nov 2002 Markets have been experiencing extreme volatility but seem to have reached a temporary bottom.
    05 Sep 2002 Revisiting our medium term views - short-term movements in the global and local markets remain difficult to read and anticipate.
    25 Jul 2002 A powerful rally on Wall Street after the carnage of the past few weeks. Where to now for global equity markets?
    25 Jun 2002 Global equity markets are ripe for a short term rally. Bearish sentiment is over done for now. For speculative investors, we recommend taking an investment in funds exposed to the US equity markets.
    31 May 2002 Given world uncertainties, some caution is called for. Continue to favour South African equities rather than offshore funds. Non-resource and non rand hedge shares remain attractive. Lock in profits on gold funds.
    12 Apr 2002 Favour SA equities rather than offshore funds. Industrials and, possibly, small cap funds seem poised to out-perform.
    18 Jan 2002 Volatility persists. Maintain equity positions for now. Avoid bonds and resources.
    11 Oct 2001 While volatility will persist, this is a good time to be investing (cautiously) on a long term view
    13 Sep 2001 Don't sell into the panic.
    21 Aug 2001 Maintain Current Equity Exposure
    23 May 2001 Continue Upweighting Equity Exposure
    19 Apr 2001 Upweight Equity Exposure
    15 Mar 2001 No Change in Recommendation
    24 Nov 2000 No Significant Change in Recommendations For Now
    11 Oct 2000 Recommendation change to cash : Global volatility catches up with SA
    03 Oct 2000 Maintain Full Equity Weighting despite oil price and Euro volatility.
    28 Aug 2000 Maintain upweight exposure: Global volatility has reduced and upside potential is seen.
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